2015 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

23·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • +0.022EPA / play-0.020
  • 40.7%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.113
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +2.87CPOE+1.51
  • 39.2%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.74
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
MINQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CHIQ1 14:03517Field goal0–3
MINQ1 10:56833Punt0–3
CHIQ1 5:5834Opp touchdown7–3
CHIQ1 3:37415Punt7–3
MINQ1 0:511161Field goal10–3
CHIQ2 9:0547Punt10–3
MINQ2 6:53418Punt10–3
CHIQ2 4:15626Punt10–3
MINQ2 1:46416Turnover10–3
CHIQ2 1:01334Touchdown10–10
MINQ2 0:4215End of half10–10
CHIQ3 15:001168Field goal10–13
MINQ3 8:28832Punt10–13
CHIQ3 5:25855Missed field goal10–13
MINQ3 1:52829Field goal13–13
CHIQ4 13:291474Touchdown13–20
MINQ4 4:55879Touchdown20–20
CHIQ4 1:4935Punt20–20
MINQ4 1:00348Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater17/3018711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson201035.20
Teddy Bridgewater22110.50
Jerick McKinnon2189.00
Matt Asiata155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs612951
Charles D. Johnson11350
Kyle Rudolph22220
MyCole Pruitt23150
Jarius Wright1280
Adrian Peterson2260
Matt Asiata3360
Mike Wallace0400

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler22/3321110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Langford12463.80
Matt Forte10414.10
Jay Cutler2115.51
Eddie Royal1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery10151161
Martellus Bennett35320
Matt Forte44280
Marc Mariani12190
Marquess Wilson13140
Eddie Royal3320
Jeremy Langford0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.96