Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.020
- 40.7%Success rate42.8%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.113
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- +2.87CPOE+1.51
- 39.2%Third-down rate42.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.94Points / drive1.74
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 17/30 | 187 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 12 | 95 | 1 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 22/33 | 211 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Langford | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 10 | 15 | 116 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.96