Closing spread
STL -8
Total
41
Model margin
+3.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 20/41 | 162 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kendall Gaskins | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 10 | 4 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 3 | 10 | 34 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 6 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Kendall Gaskins | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.49
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.