2015 · Week 8 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

6·27

Rams

St. Louis

QB Nick Foles

Edward Jones Dome · dome · astroplay

Closing spread

STL -8

Total

41

Model margin

+3.8est.

STL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Rams wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–STL
SFQ1 15:00844Field goal3–0
LAQ1 10:2936Punt3–0
SFQ1 9:1239Punt3–0
LAQ1 7:45611Punt3–0
SFQ1 5:323-3Safety3–2
LAQ1 4:24332Turnover3–2
SFQ1 3:0130Punt3–2
LAQ1 2:3834Punt3–2
SFQ1 1:2933Punt3–2
LAQ2 14:47410Punt3–2
SFQ2 12:395-1Punt3–8
LAQ2 10:35171Touchdown3–10
SFQ2 10:253-1Punt3–10
LAQ2 9:05519Field goal3–13
SFQ2 6:521163Field goal6–13
LAQ2 1:53972Touchdown6–20
SFQ2 0:1800End of half6–20
LAQ3 15:00515Punt6–20
SFQ3 13:0639Punt6–20
LAQ3 11:53730Punt6–20
SFQ3 7:4233Punt6–20
LAQ3 6:11819Missed field goal6–20
SFQ3 1:14517Punt6–20
LAQ4 14:1338Punt6–20
SFQ4 12:3269Punt6–20
LAQ4 10:09373Touchdown6–27
SFQ4 8:34413Punt6–27
LAQ4 6:2835Punt6–27
SFQ4 3:59625Turnover on downs6–27
LAQ4 3:03216End of half6–27

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick20/4116200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick6284.70
Kendall Gaskins561.20
Mike Davis1040.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Simpson310340
Quinton Patton24330
Vernon Davis68240
Torrey Smith25190
Kendall Gaskins23170
Mike Davis23140
Vance McDonald12130
Bruce Ellington2380
Reggie Bush0100
Garrett Celek0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.49
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.78

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.