2015 · Week 8 · Division
Final / OT
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -8
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.000
- 44.4%Success rate46.4%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.195
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.02CPOE-0.01
- 41.4%Third-down rate47.3%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.77Points / drive1.77
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 16/29 | 177 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 23 | 71 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Charles Sims | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Donteea Dye | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 37/45 | 397 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 21 | 88 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 12 | 13 | 162 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 10 | 12 | 103 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 6 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.19