2015 · Week 8 · Division

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

23·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -8

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.000
  • 44.4%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.113
  • -0.141EPA / rush-0.195
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.02CPOE-0.01
  • 41.4%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.77
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001467Field goal0–3
TBQ1 7:54727Punt0–3
ATLQ1 3:42235Turnover0–3
TBQ1 3:0131Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 2:031371Turnover3–3
TBQ2 9:04973Field goal6–3
ATLQ2 3:32836Turnover6–3
TBQ2 1:23650Touchdown13–3
ATLQ2 0:3018End of half13–3
TBQ3 15:0031Punt13–3
ATLQ3 13:57730Turnover13–3
TBQ3 10:021038Touchdown20–3
ATLQ3 6:061195Touchdown20–10
TBQ3 0:15824Punt20–10
ATLQ4 12:071487Field goal20–13
TBQ4 4:56720Turnover on downs20–13
ATLQ4 1:52545Touchdown20–20
TBQ4 0:1700End of half20–20
TBOT1657Field goal23–20
ATLOT522Turnover on downs23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston16/2917710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin23713.10
Jameis Winston3248.01
Charles Sims6223.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Brate22481
Mike Evans39480
Brandon Myers33320
Charles Sims34240
Adam Humphries36140
Doug Martin1170
Donteea Dye1340
Luke Stocker0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan37/4539721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman21884.20
Tevin Coleman3113.70
Matt Ryan320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones12131621
Jacob Tamme10121031
Devonta Freeman68430
Roddy White23240
Justin Hardy24210
Eric Weems11110
Tevin Coleman11100
Patrick DiMarco1180
Terron Ward1180
Levine Toilolo1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.19