2015 · Week 9 · Division

Final / OT

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

33·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Matt Cassel

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • -0.044EPA / play-0.073
  • 42.7%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.008EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -0.86CPOE-0.85
  • 39.1%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.31
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
PHIQ1 15:00615Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:301193Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 6:44630Punt0–7
DALQ1 3:5536Punt0–7
PHIQ1 2:2443Punt0–7
DALQ1 1:36722Punt0–7
PHIQ2 13:181380Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 9:011255Punt7–7
PHIQ2 2:151044Punt7–7
DALQ3 15:0065Punt7–7
PHIQ3 11:15891Touchdown14–7
DALQ3 8:361175Touchdown14–14
PHIQ3 2:043-5Punt14–14
DALQ3 0:20535Opp touchdown21–14
DALQ4 12:47324Touchdown21–21
PHIQ4 10:52967Field goal24–21
DALQ4 7:22957Field goal24–24
PHIQ4 2:53545Field goal27–24
DALQ4 1:461139Field goal27–27
PHIQ4 0:0200End of half27–27
PHIOT990Touchdown33–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford25/3629510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray18834.61
Ryan Mathews11676.11
Darren Sproles5234.60
Sam Bradford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews9121331
DeMarco Murray67780
Zach Ertz56440
Miles Austin13270
Josh Huff24100
Darren Sproles2330
Ryan Mathews0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel25/3829931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren McFadden271174.30
Matt Cassel2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley9111122
Dez Bryant581041
Jason Witten68430
Terrance Williams35270
Lucky Whitehead1280
Darren McFadden1250
James Hanna0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.76