Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play-0.073
- 42.7%Success rate43.9%
- -0.008EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.86CPOE-0.85
- 39.1%Third-down rate34.0%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 1.56Points / drive1.31
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 25/36 | 295 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 18 | 83 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Ryan Mathews | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 9 | 12 | 133 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 6 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 25/38 | 299 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 27 | 117 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 9 | 11 | 112 | 2 |
| Dez Bryant | 5 | 8 | 104 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 6 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.76