2015 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

39·32

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.133EPA / play+0.105
  • 47.7%Success rate47.1%
  • +0.260EPA / dropback+0.255
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.104
  • 10.8%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +4.51CPOE+7.64
  • 47.4%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 2.34Points / drive2.18
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
ARIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:26723Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:211675Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 2:29410Punt0–0
ARIQ1 0:55634Field goal3–0
SEAQ2 12:522-12Safety5–0
ARIQ2 12:141257Touchdown12–0
SEAQ2 6:4142Punt12–0
ARIQ2 5:25345Touchdown19–0
SEAQ2 4:02766Touchdown19–7
ARIQ2 1:52855Field goal22–7
SEAQ3 15:00867Field goal22–10
ARIQ3 11:18425Punt22–10
SEAQ3 8:5226Turnover22–10
ARIQ3 8:1145Field goal25–10
SEAQ3 6:29464Touchdown25–17
ARIQ3 4:5239Punt25–17
SEAQ3 3:21815Punt25–17
ARIQ3 0:403-7Turnover25–23
SEAQ4 14:4913Touchdown25–23
ARIQ4 14:445-6Opp touchdown25–29
ARIQ4 13:001178Touchdown32–29
SEAQ4 8:41654Punt32–29
ARIQ4 6:02880Touchdown39–29
SEAQ4 1:58545Field goal39–32
ARIQ4 0:5800End of half39–32

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer29/4736331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington56112.21
Chris Johnson25582.30
Carson Palmer3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald10141300
Michael Floyd791132
Jaron Brown35380
Andre Ellington34270
Jermaine Gresham23261
Darren Fells34210
David Johnson1180
Chris Johnson0200
John Brown0300

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/3224011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson6528.70
Marshawn Lynch8425.31
Thomas Rawls2199.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin7101341
Jimmy Graham38410
Paul Richardson11400
Jermaine Kearse12100
Marshawn Lynch1280
Tyler Lockett1170
Chris Matthews0200
Luke Willson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.64