Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play+0.105
- 47.7%Success rate47.1%
- +0.260EPA / dropback+0.255
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.104
- 10.8%Explosive rate10.9%
- +4.51CPOE+7.64
- 47.4%Third-down rate47.8%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 2.34Points / drive2.18
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 29/47 | 363 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 61 | 12.2 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 25 | 58 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 10 | 14 | 130 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 7 | 9 | 113 | 2 |
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/32 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 52 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Thomas Rawls | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 10 | 134 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.64