2012 · Week 3

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

10·16

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.043
  • 41.0%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.038EPA / rush-0.133
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -4.01CPOE+3.18
  • 35.9%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.79
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 36.8 points. DAL are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5TB @ DAL24–16TB
2024 · W16TB @ DAL24–26DAL
2022 · playoffsDAL @ TB31–14DAL
2022 · W1TB @ DAL19–3TB
2021 · W1DAL @ TB29–31TB
2018 · W16TB @ DAL20–27DAL
2016 · W15TB @ DAL20–26DAL
2015 · W10DAL @ TB6–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DAL
DALQ1 15:0030Turnover0–0
TBQ1 14:1189Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 10:51925Punt7–0
TBQ1 4:4231Turnover7–0
DALQ1 3:23423Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 1:22732Punt7–7
DALQ2 11:54314Punt7–7
TBQ2 10:18513Punt7–7
DALQ2 7:2242Field goal7–7
DALQ2 5:34517Field goal7–10
TBQ2 2:51415Punt7–10
DALQ2 0:57734Turnover on downs7–10
TBQ3 15:0032Punt7–10
DALQ3 13:54849Turnover7–10
TBQ3 10:261129Punt7–10
DALQ3 4:48520Turnover7–10
TBQ3 2:0330Punt7–10
DALQ3 1:36987Field goal7–13
TBQ4 11:1033Punt7–13
DALQ4 10:09422Punt7–13
TBQ4 7:283-8Punt7–13
DALQ4 4:44412Field goal7–16
TBQ4 2:431070Field goal10–16
DALQ4 0:4000End of half10–16

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman10/2811011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin19532.80
LeGarrette Blount4194.80
D.J. Ware122.00
Josh Freeman111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams26330
Vincent Jackson17290
Doug Martin23210
D.J. Ware12110
Arrelious Benn1180
Tiquan Underwood1170
Luke Stocker1311
Dallas Clark1400

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo25/3928301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray18382.11
Tony Romo410.30
Felix Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin591070
Dez Bryant68620
Kevin Ogletree57570
Felix Jones22280
DeMarco Murray34170
Jason Witten2680
Tony Romo11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.32