2012 · Week 3
Final
Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.043
- 41.0%Success rate47.2%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.133
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- -4.01CPOE+3.18
- 35.9%Third-down rate43.3%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.74Points / drive1.79
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 9–6 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 36.6 points. DAL are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 10/28 | 110 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 1 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 25/39 | 283 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 18 | 38 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 5 | 9 | 107 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.32