Closing spread
KC -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutAllen BaileyDECalf· DNP
- OutBen GrubbsGNeck· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableRamik WilsonLBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableTyvon BranchSFoot· Full
- ProbableTamba HaliLBKnee· DNP
- ProbableSean SmithCBKnee· Full
- ProbableTravis KelceTEGroin· Full
Chargers
- OutMalcom FloydWRShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableCorey LiugetDTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableD.J. FlukerGConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableLadarius GreenTEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAntonio GatesTEKnee· Limited
- ProbableDarrell StuckeySHamstring· Full
- ProbableDenzel PerrymanLBBiceps· Full
- ProbableJason VerrettCBGroin· Full
- ProbableKing DunlapTAnkle· Full
- ProbableKyle EmanuelLBConcussion· Full
- ProbableManti Te'oLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableOrlando FranklinGKnee· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:17 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:35 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 6–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:09 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| KC | Q2 12:09 | 11 | 75 | Field goal | 9–3 |
| LAC | Q2 5:53 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 9–3 |
| KC | Q2 2:17 | 9 | 74 | Field goal | 12–3 |
| LAC | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 12–3 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 12–3 |
| KC | Q3 13:10 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 12–3 |
| LAC | Q3 10:40 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 12–3 |
| KC | Q3 7:57 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 12–3 |
| LAC | Q3 4:25 | 3 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 19–3 |
| LAC | Q3 3:27 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 19–3 |
| KC | Q3 0:36 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 19–3 |
| KC | Q4 13:45 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 19–3 |
| LAC | Q4 12:09 | 9 | 41 | Punt | 19–3 |
| KC | Q4 9:50 | 7 | 74 | Touchdown | 26–3 |
| LAC | Q4 6:11 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 26–3 |
| KC | Q4 4:13 | 3 | 24 | Touchdown | 33–3 |
| LAC | Q4 2:32 | 5 | 18 | End of half | 33–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/25 | 253 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 11 | 96 | 8.7 | 2 |
| Alex Smith | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 11 | 16 | 1.5 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+0.69
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.