Closing spread
KC -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SD are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/25 | 253 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 11 | 96 | 8.7 | 2 |
| Alex Smith | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 11 | 16 | 1.5 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+0.69
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.