2015 · Week 11 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Blaine Gabbert

13·29

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -14

Total

40

Model margin

+7.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.091EPA / play+0.105
  • 38.8%Success rate47.1%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.255
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -3.50CPOE+7.64
  • 30.2%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.32Points / drive2.18
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SFQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:53661Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 9:5539Punt0–7
SEAQ1 8:291159Touchdown0–13
SFQ1 3:04727Punt0–13
SEAQ2 14:521497Touchdown0–20
SFQ2 7:1537Punt0–20
SEAQ2 5:541042Punt0–20
SFQ2 1:40992Touchdown7–20
SEAQ2 0:0900End of half7–20
SEAQ3 15:0038Punt7–20
SFQ3 13:11756Field goal10–20
SEAQ3 9:44870Field goal10–23
SFQ3 5:011079Field goal13–23
SEAQ3 0:07785Touchdown13–29
SFQ4 12:32426Punt13–29
SEAQ4 10:36736Punt13–29
SFQ4 7:34413Punt13–29
SEAQ4 5:34420Punt13–29
SFQ4 3:2732Punt13–29
SEAQ4 3:00434End of half13–29

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert22/3426410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Draughn12373.10
Blaine Gabbert4225.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin57930
Vance McDonald44651
Shaun Draughn811400
Garrett Celek23350
Torrey Smith13160
Quinton Patton23150
Bruce Ellington0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson24/2926030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls302097.01
Russell Wilson9303.30
Fred Jackson4112.80
Tyler Lockett155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin66600
Tyler Lockett45482
Thomas Rawls33461
Jimmy Graham33390
Jermaine Kearse35340
Luke Willson22150
Fred Jackson22110
Cooper Helfet1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.3%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+6.97