Closing spread
SEA -14
Total
40
Model margin
+7.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play+0.105
- 38.8%Success rate47.1%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.255
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.9%
- -3.50CPOE+7.64
- 30.2%Third-down rate47.8%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.32Points / drive2.18
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 22/34 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Draughn | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 7 | 93 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 4 | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| Shaun Draughn | 8 | 11 | 40 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 24/29 | 260 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 30 | 209 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 48 | 2 |
| Thomas Rawls | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+6.97