Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.051
- 41.1%Success rate41.8%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.200EPA / rush-0.254
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.30CPOE-3.08
- 32.1%Third-down rate33.9%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.32Points / drive1.59
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 22/35 | 231 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Andrews | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| David Cobb | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 8 | 10 | 109 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rico Richardson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 21/30 | 242 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryan Walters | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 7 | 113 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 5 | 8 | 28 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.77