2015 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

13·19

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.103EPA / play-0.051
  • 41.1%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.200EPA / rush-0.254
  • 7.8%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.30CPOE-3.08
  • 32.1%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.59
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
TENQ1 15:00951Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 9:0636Punt3–0
TENQ1 8:00413Punt3–0
JAXQ1 5:211073Field goal3–3
TENQ2 14:50943Field goal6–3
JAXQ2 10:58520Turnover6–3
TENQ2 8:2631Punt6–3
JAXQ2 7:32939Punt6–3
TENQ2 3:013-3Punt6–3
JAXQ2 1:26436Field goal6–6
TENQ2 0:31542End of half6–6
JAXQ3 15:001373Field goal6–9
TENQ3 8:10733Touchdown13–9
JAXQ3 5:22517Punt13–9
TENQ3 3:13957Missed field goal13–9
JAXQ4 12:58434Turnover13–9
TENQ4 10:4952Punt13–9
JAXQ4 7:283-4Punt13–9
TENQ4 5:5039Punt13–15
JAXQ4 3:3415Touchdown13–16
TENQ4 3:3018Turnover13–16
JAXQ4 3:1939Field goal13–19
TENQ4 2:191060End of half13–19

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota22/3523100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Andrews15785.20
Marcus Mariota5295.81
Dexter McCluster200.00
David Cobb4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker8101090
Dorial Green-Beckham36400
Dexter McCluster22180
Harry Douglas25160
Phillip Supernaw22160
Antonio Andrews22160
Anthony Fasano22140
Jalston Fowler1120
Craig Stevens0100
Rico Richardson0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles21/3024211
Bryan Walters0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon14543.90
Denard Robinson7273.90
Blake Bortles294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson571130
Bryan Walters23350
Julius Thomas58281
T.J. Yeldon34280
Allen Hurns34190
Clay Harbor22170
Rashad Greene1120
Marcedes Lewis0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.77