Closing spread
ARI -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
-1.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play-0.091
- 47.7%Success rate38.8%
- +0.260EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.150
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.51CPOE-3.50
- 47.4%Third-down rate30.2%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.34Points / drive1.32
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 24/40 | 271 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 12 | 17 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 5 | 7 | 99 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 10 | 14 | 66 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 25/36 | 318 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Draughn | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 11 | 93 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 6 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Blake Bell | 3 | 3 | 67 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.40