2015 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

19·13

49ers

San Francisco

QB Blaine Gabbert

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

ARI -7.5

Total

45

Model margin

-1.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • +0.133EPA / play-0.091
  • 47.7%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.260EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.150
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.51CPOE-3.50
  • 47.4%Third-down rate30.2%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.32
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
SFQ1 15:00740Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:19619Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:28726Field goal3–0
SFQ1 4:00520Turnover3–0
ARIQ1 1:55934Field goal6–0
SFQ2 12:43418Punt6–0
ARIQ2 10:53528Turnover on downs6–0
SFQ2 8:1932Punt6–0
ARIQ2 7:01521Punt6–0
SFQ2 3:421160Field goal6–3
ARIQ3 15:001465Touchdown13–3
SFQ3 9:58677Touchdown13–10
ARIQ3 7:34535Punt13–10
SFQ3 5:38775Field goal13–13
ARIQ3 1:28918Punt13–13
SFQ4 12:32519Punt13–13
ARIQ4 10:251782Touchdown19–13
SFQ4 2:28857Turnover on downs19–13
ARIQ4 1:12111End of half19–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer24/4027100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington5244.80
David Johnson8212.61
Chris Johnson12171.40
Carson Palmer362.01
Stepfan Taylor122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown57990
Larry Fitzgerald1014660
J.J. Nelson25530
Andre Ellington35220
Michael Floyd12140
Jermaine Gresham1390
David Johnson2480

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert25/3631811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Draughn15513.40
Blaine Gabbert11111.00
Quinton Patton155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin811930
Vance McDonald67711
Blake Bell33670
Torrey Smith23510
Shaun Draughn55350
Quinton Patton1610
Jerome Simpson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.40