2015 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

20·38

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYJ -4.5

Total

44

Model margin

+5.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.032EPA / play+0.025
  • 40.5%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.144
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.20CPOE-1.27
  • 31.0%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.42Points / drive1.90
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00524Turnover on downs0–0
MIAQ1 13:0334Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:3238Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:00526Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 7:441387Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 1:5345Punt0–7
NYJQ1 0:2932Punt0–7
MIAQ2 14:273-3Punt0–7
NYJQ2 12:42615Punt0–7
MIAQ2 9:54516Punt0–7
NYJQ2 7:3936Punt0–7
MIAQ2 6:05633Punt0–7
NYJQ2 2:401192Touchdown0–14
MIAQ2 0:0810End of half0–14
MIAQ3 15:00516Punt0–14
NYJQ3 12:40835Touchdown0–21
MIAQ3 8:47514Punt0–21
NYJQ3 7:053-3Punt0–21
MIAQ3 6:09769Touchdown7–21
NYJQ3 2:301079Touchdown7–28
MIAQ4 12:0537Punt7–28
NYJQ4 11:08355Touchdown7–35
MIAQ4 9:291480Touchdown14–35
NYJQ4 4:5100Turnover14–35
MIAQ4 4:511-10Turnover14–35
NYJQ4 4:45612Field goal14–38
MIAQ4 2:431076Touchdown20–38
NYJQ4 0:0500End of half20–38

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill33/5835131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi362.00
Jarvis Landry144.00
Lamar Miller520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry13161651
DeVante Parker410801
Jay Ajayi46520
Jordan Cameron23130
Kenny Stills210120
Lamar Miller34110
Damien Williams24100
Greg Jennings2391
Rishard Matthews0100
Dion Sims11-10

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick22/3727740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory21874.11
Bilal Powell6284.70
Ryan Fitzpatrick5214.20
Stevan Ridley210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall9111312
Eric Decker59621
Devin Smith23331
Quincy Enunwa26290
Chris Ivory22150
Bilal Powell2570

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.97