Closing spread
NYJ -4.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.025
- 40.5%Success rate41.9%
- +0.008EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.144
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.20CPOE-1.27
- 31.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.42Points / drive1.90
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 33/58 | 351 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 13 | 16 | 165 | 1 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 10 | 80 | 1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 10 | 12 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Rishard Matthews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22/37 | 277 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 9 | 11 | 131 | 2 |
| Eric Decker | 5 | 9 | 62 | 1 |
| Devin Smith | 2 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.97