Closing spread
ATL -10
Total
44
Model margin
+5.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play+0.046
- 39.2%Success rate43.6%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.087
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -5.80CPOE+1.80
- 38.8%Third-down rate45.0%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.60Points / drive1.86
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 17/25 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 17 | 44 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 8 | 8 | 95 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Allen Reisner | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/34 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 10 | 13 | 120 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 9 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.44