2011 · Week 12

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

14·24

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -10

Total

44

Model margin

+5.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.054EPA / play+0.046
  • 39.2%Success rate43.6%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.087
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -5.80CPOE+1.80
  • 38.8%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.60Points / drive1.86
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2ATL @ MIN22–6ATL
2024 · W14ATL @ MIN21–42MIN
2023 · W9MIN @ ATL31–28MIN
2020 · W6ATL @ MIN40–23ATL
2019 · W1ATL @ MIN12–28MIN
2017 · W13MIN @ ATL14–9MIN
2015 · W12MIN @ ATL20–10MIN
2014 · W4ATL @ MIN28–41MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:203-4Punt0–0
ATLQ1 11:471070Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 6:08625Punt0–7
ATLQ1 3:131040Punt0–7
MINQ2 13:20517Punt0–7
ATLQ2 10:051073Touchdown0–14
MINQ2 4:0430Punt0–14
ATLQ2 2:00517Field goal0–17
MINQ2 0:37659End of half0–17
MINQ3 15:0031Punt0–17
ATLQ3 13:5439Punt0–17
MINQ3 11:511480Touchdown7–17
ATLQ3 3:58519Punt7–17
MINQ3 0:2132Punt7–17
MINQ4 14:05441Touchdown14–17
ATLQ4 13:1336Punt14–17
MINQ4 12:0535Punt14–17
ATLQ4 10:39973Touchdown14–24
MINQ4 6:4040Turnover on downs14–24
ATLQ4 4:16624End of half14–24

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder17/2518610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Toby Gerhart17442.61
Percy Harvin5112.20
Christian Ponder294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin88951
Michael Jenkins24250
Visanthe Shiancoe34240
Toby Gerhart23190
Devin Aromashodu15180
Allen Reisner1150

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/3426230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner19603.20
Jacquizz Rodgers3196.30
Matt Ryan430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White10131201
Tony Gonzalez99690
Harry Douglas25451
Jacquizz Rodgers22120
Michael Palmer2381
Michael Turner1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

3.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.44