Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. STL are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 26/40 | 356 | 2 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 22 | 99 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 6 | 59 | 9.8 | 1 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 6 | 8 | 113 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 7 | 12 | 104 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 11 | 55 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.62
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.