Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- OutAndre EllingtonRBToe· DNP
- OutFrostee RuckerDTAnkle· DNP
- OutJerraud PowersCBCalf· DNP
- DoubtfulCory ReddingDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableMichael FloydWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableJohn BrownWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableEd StinsonDTGroin· Full
- ProbableJonathan CooperGKnee· Full
- ProbableLarry FitzgeraldWRAnkle· Full
- ProbablePatrick PetersonCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableTony JeffersonSThigh· Full
Rams
- OutAndrew DonnalTKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulGreg ZuerleinKright Hip· DNP
- DoubtfulRobert QuinnDEBack· DNP
- DoubtfulTrumaine JohnsonCBThigh· DNP
- QuestionableCase KeenumQBConcussion· Limited
- ProbableRob HavensteinTCalf· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:07 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 6:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:16 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 5:10 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 1:47 | 5 | 38 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q2 14:05 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 10:42 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q2 6:58 | 8 | 48 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 1:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q2 1:00 | 7 | 55 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LA | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–0 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–0 |
| ARI | Q3 14:28 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LA | Q3 12:42 | 4 | 34 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| ARI | Q3 11:30 | 10 | 98 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| LA | Q3 5:53 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–3 |
| ARI | Q3 4:18 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 24–3 |
| LA | Q3 1:30 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 24–3 |
| ARI | Q4 13:55 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 24–3 |
| LA | Q4 11:03 | 10 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 24–3 |
| ARI | Q4 8:47 | 8 | 85 | Field goal | 27–3 |
| LA | Q4 4:09 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 27–3 |
| ARI | Q4 3:44 | 6 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 27–3 |
| LA | Q4 0:36 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 26/40 | 356 | 2 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 22 | 99 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 6 | 59 | 9.8 | 1 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 6 | 8 | 113 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 7 | 12 | 104 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 11 | 55 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.62
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.