2015 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

19·23

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.000EPA / play+0.008
  • 46.4%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.113EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.141
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -0.01CPOE-0.02
  • 47.3%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.77
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
TBQ1 15:00731Punt0–0
ATLQ1 10:31724Punt0–0
TBQ1 7:291580Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 1:011565Field goal3–7
TBQ2 9:36857Punt3–7
ATLQ2 4:55968Field goal6–7
TBQ2 1:01323Turnover6–7
ATLQ2 0:34517Field goal9–7
ATLQ3 15:001173Field goal12–7
TBQ3 8:351092Touchdown12–13
ATLQ3 3:3530Punt12–13
TBQ3 2:5858Field goal12–16
ATLQ3 1:2132Punt12–16
TBQ4 14:52219Turnover12–16
ATLQ4 14:08855Touchdown19–16
TBQ4 10:4133Punt19–16
ATLQ4 9:40515Punt19–16
TBQ4 6:551485Touchdown19–23
ATLQ4 1:3910Turnover19–23
TBQ4 1:3200End of half19–23

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan30/4526911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman14473.40
Tevin Coleman3134.30
Matt Ryan144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones817930
Devonta Freeman1011560
Justin Hardy23340
Roddy White34330
Jacob Tamme34260
Patrick DiMarco22180
Nick Williams1251
Tevin Coleman1140

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston18/2722711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin25953.81
Charles Sims7568.00
Jameis Winston5153.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson35870
Mike Evans57611
Austin Seferian-Jenkins36310
Charles Sims23210
Cameron Brate22120
Adam Humphries1160
Doug Martin1250
Luke Stocker1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.79