2015 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 18mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play+0.008
- 46.4%Success rate44.4%
- +0.113EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.141
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.01CPOE-0.02
- 47.3%Third-down rate41.4%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.77Points / drive1.77
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/45 | 269 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 8 | 17 | 93 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 10 | 11 | 56 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 18/27 | 227 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 25 | 95 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Charles Sims | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 5 | 87 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.79