2015 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

41·38

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

CAR -5.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • +0.074EPA / play+0.080
  • 45.5%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.078
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +0.41CPOE+2.78
  • 42.1%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.09
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
NOQ1 15:00730Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:49310Punt0–0
NOQ1 10:12551Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 8:16315Turnover0–7
NOQ1 6:3030Missed field goal0–7
CARQ1 5:1123Opp touchdown0–14
CARQ1 4:041165Touchdown7–14
NOQ2 14:55723Punt7–14
CARQ2 11:23430Turnover7–14
NOQ2 9:19416Punt7–14
CARQ2 7:471174Touchdown13–16
NOQ2 1:55517Punt13–16
CARQ2 0:2200End of half13–16
CARQ3 15:001170Touchdown20–16
NOQ3 10:213-9Punt20–16
CARQ3 9:32860Touchdown27–16
NOQ3 4:56467Touchdown27–24
CARQ3 2:5163Punt27–24
NOQ3 0:37535Touchdown27–31
CARQ4 14:02590Touchdown34–31
NOQ4 11:542-9Turnover34–31
CARQ4 11:0039Punt34–31
NOQ4 9:25883Touchdown34–38
CARQ4 5:211270Touchdown41–38
NOQ4 1:05630Turnover on downs41–38
CARQ4 0:0900End of half41–38

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton28/4133151

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart21823.91
Cam Newton10494.90
Fozzy Whittaker11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen9121290
Ted Ginn510802
Jonathan Stewart33310
Ed Dickson33270
Jerricho Cotchery33261
Devin Funchess13131
Corey Brown2470

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees24/4228231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram12564.71
Drew Brees11212.00
Tim Hightower122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks6101041
Brandon Coleman47731
Benjamin Watson48381
Mark Ingram46230
Michael Hoomanawanui11190
Marques Colston13140
Josh Hill23110
C.J. Spiller1200
Trevor Graham1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.22