Closing spread
CAR -5.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.074EPA / play+0.080
- 45.5%Success rate44.6%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.078
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.0%
- +0.41CPOE+2.78
- 42.1%Third-down rate48.9%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 2.31Points / drive2.09
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 28/41 | 331 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 9 | 12 | 129 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 5 | 10 | 80 | 2 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Devin Funchess | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/42 | 282 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 10 | 104 | 1 |
| Brandon Coleman | 4 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.22