2015 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Matt Cassel

19·16

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

WAS -2

Total

43

Model margin

+5.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.022
  • 43.9%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.191
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -0.85CPOE+5.62
  • 34.0%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 42.4%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.81
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
WASQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:5024Turnover0–0
WASQ1 12:3632Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:1035Punt0–0
WASQ1 9:3043Punt0–0
DALQ1 7:12414Punt0–0
WASQ1 5:2867Punt0–0
DALQ1 2:2232Punt0–0
WASQ1 0:15736Punt0–0
DALQ2 11:471065Field goal3–0
WASQ2 6:311573Field goal3–3
DALQ3 15:00321Turnover3–3
WASQ3 13:40523Field goal3–6
DALQ3 10:331357Field goal6–6
WASQ3 3:34845Field goal6–9
DALQ4 14:15439Turnover6–9
WASQ4 12:07738Missed field goal6–9
DALQ4 7:26565Field goal9–9
WASQ4 4:2232Punt9–9
DALQ4 3:20511Punt9–9
DALQ4 1:26215Touchdown16–9
WASQ4 1:14443Touchdown16–16
DALQ4 0:44420Field goal19–16
WASQ4 0:0900End of half19–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel16/2922300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren McFadden14533.81
Lucky Whitehead23517.50
Robert Turbin6122.00
Matt Cassel2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams23630
Dez Bryant37620
Jason Witten59460
Devin Street11180
Robert Turbin22120
James Hanna11110
Darren McFadden1160
Lucky Whitehead1150
Cole Beasley0300

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/3121910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Jones18492.70
Alfred Morris6122.00
Kirk Cousins166.00
Chris Thompson166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson67801
Pierre Garcon57540
Jordan Reed38330
Jamison Crowder34290
Chris Thompson44180
Matt Jones1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.47