2015 · Week 13 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -2
Total
43
Model margin
+5.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.022
- 43.9%Success rate42.6%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.191
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- -0.85CPOE+5.62
- 34.0%Third-down rate43.9%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.31Points / drive1.81
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 16/29 | 223 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 3 | 63 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/31 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 18 | 49 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.47