Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.103
- 41.8%Success rate41.1%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.254EPA / rush-0.200
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- -3.08CPOE+0.30
- 33.9%Third-down rate32.1%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 1.59Points / drive1.32
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 24/36 | 322 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Denard Robinson | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 10 | 15 | 153 | 3 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 | 4 | 79 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Rashad Greene | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 20/29 | 268 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 9 | 112 | 12.4 | 1 |
| Antonio Andrews | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 1 |
| David Cobb | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 5 | 6 | 119 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 8 | 12 | 92 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Antonio Andrews | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.21