2015 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

39·42

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • -0.051EPA / play-0.103
  • 41.8%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.254EPA / rush-0.200
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -3.08CPOE+0.30
  • 33.9%Third-down rate32.1%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.32
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
JAXQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:2732Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:3035Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:531275Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 4:151075Touchdown6–7
TENQ2 14:561085Touchdown6–14
JAXQ2 8:453-5Punt6–14
TENQ2 7:00316Turnover6–14
JAXQ2 5:37866Touchdown12–14
TENQ2 1:52975Touchdown12–21
JAXQ2 0:0200End of half12–21
TENQ3 15:00417Punt12–21
JAXQ3 12:251464Touchdown19–21
TENQ3 4:521070Touchdown19–28
JAXQ4 14:49680Touchdown25–28
TENQ4 11:5231Turnover31–28
JAXQ4 10:1419Touchdown32–28
TENQ4 10:09390Touchdown32–35
JAXQ4 8:3026Opp touchdown32–42
JAXQ4 7:46480Touchdown39–42
TENQ4 6:28833Punt39–42
JAXQ4 2:504-5Turnover on downs39–42
TENQ4 2:0244End of half39–42

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles24/3632250

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon15573.81
Denard Robinson3217.00
Marqise Lee144.00
Blake Bortles2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson10151533
T.J. Yeldon44790
Bryan Walters22180
Marqise Lee14170
Julius Thomas25151
Rashad Greene23151
Marcedes Lewis1170
Denard Robinson1120

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota20/2926831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota911212.41
Antonio Andrews13584.51
David Cobb13403.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dorial Green-Beckham561191
Delanie Walker812921
Kendall Wright34280
Craig Stevens22111
Antonio Andrews11100
Harry Douglas1380
Bishop Sankey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.21