Closing spread
KC -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutDe'Anthony ThomasWRConcussion· DNP
- OutHusain AbdullahSNeck· DNP
- OutJustin HoustonLBKnee· DNP
- OutMitch MorseCConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableAllen BaileyDECalf· Full
- QuestionableJeff AllenGAnkle· Full
- DNPEric BerrySNot Injury Related
- ProbableMike DevitoDEShoulder· DNP
- ProbableTamba HaliLBKnee· DNP
- ProbableCharcandrick WestRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableChris ConleyWRHand· Full
- ProbableDee FordLBBack· Full
- ProbableDustin ColquittPright Knee· Full
- ProbableEric FisherTNeck· Full
- ProbableJoshua MaugaLBHeel· Full
- ProbableMarcus CooperCBThumb· Full
- ProbableSpencer WareRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableTravis KelceTEGroin· Full
Raiders
- OutKeith McGillCBAnkle· DNP
- OutNeiron BallLBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulRodney HudsonCAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulTaiwan JonesRBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableNeiko ThorpeCBKnee· Limited
- ProbableCharles WoodsonSShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 10:25 | 10 | 51 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 4:58 | 8 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 7–7 |
| KC | Q1 0:40 | 2 | 20 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 14:52 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 13:12 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 10:59 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 8:52 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 6:01 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 4:22 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 1:15 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:53 | 4 | 36 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| KC | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–14 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LV | Q3 9:16 | 14 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| KC | Q3 2:12 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 14–20 |
| LV | Q3 0:06 | 7 | 30 | Turnover | 14–20 |
| KC | Q4 11:58 | 2 | 1 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| LV | Q4 11:17 | 7 | 26 | Turnover | 20–20 |
| KC | Q4 8:08 | 2 | 13 | Touchdown | 26–20 |
| LV | Q4 7:57 | 6 | 45 | Missed field goal | 26–20 |
| KC | Q4 5:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 26–20 |
| LV | Q4 4:37 | 3 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 34–20 |
| LV | Q4 3:14 | 8 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 34–20 |
| KC | Q4 1:18 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 34–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/22 | 162 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 9 | 10 | 95 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.