Closing spread
KC -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/22 | 162 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 9 | 10 | 95 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.