Closing spread
CAR -8.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play+0.074
- 46.4%Success rate45.5%
- +0.113EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.022
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.01CPOE+0.41
- 47.3%Third-down rate42.1%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 1.77Points / drive2.31
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/34 | 224 | 0 | 1 |
| Sean Renfree | 3/7 | 11 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/21 | 265 | 3 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 4/6 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 10 | 75 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 3 | 120 | 2 |
| Corey Brown | 3 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Scott Simonson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.36