2015 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

0·38

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CAR -8.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.000EPA / play+0.074
  • 46.4%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.113EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.022
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.01CPOE+0.41
  • 47.3%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.31
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
CARQ1 15:001087Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 11:28529Punt0–7
CARQ1 8:06393Touchdown0–14
ATLQ1 6:48714Punt0–14
CARQ1 3:35780Touchdown0–21
ATLQ1 0:121023Punt0–21
CARQ2 9:3038Punt0–21
ATLQ2 8:07831Punt0–21
CARQ2 3:441081Touchdown0–28
ATLQ2 0:1700End of half0–28
ATLQ3 15:0038Punt0–28
CARQ3 14:003-10Punt0–28
ATLQ3 11:42319Turnover0–28
CARQ3 10:31933Field goal0–31
ATLQ3 5:4666Turnover0–31
CARQ3 4:15426Touchdown0–38
ATLQ3 2:18511Turnover0–38
CARQ3 0:48715Punt0–38
ATLQ4 11:57679Turnover on downs0–38
CARQ4 9:4934Punt0–38
ATLQ4 8:17815Turnover on downs0–38
CARQ4 5:0149Turnover on downs0–38
ATLQ4 2:194-4Turnover0–38
CARQ4 1:2200End of half0–38

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3422401
Sean Renfree3/71101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman12403.30
Tevin Coleman3155.00
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones710880
Nick Williams44400
Roddy White45350
Jacob Tamme45260
Devonta Freeman35220
Patrick DiMarco23150
Justin Hardy1790
Levine Toilolo0100
Tevin Coleman0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton15/2126530
Derek Anderson4/63600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart10757.51
Fozzy Whittaker8344.31
Corey Brown199.00
Ted Ginn155.00
Cam Newton341.30
Derek Anderson3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn231202
Corey Brown36590
Greg Olsen34520
Devin Funchess35250
Jonathan Stewart11140
Jerricho Cotchery22100
Scott Simonson11100
Ed Dickson1141
Fozzy Whittaker11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.36