2015 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
TB -6
Total
52
Model margin
+2.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.080EPA / play+0.008
- 44.6%Success rate44.4%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.141
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- +2.78CPOE-0.02
- 48.9%Third-down rate41.4%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.09Points / drive1.77
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 31/41 | 312 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 28 | 85 | 3.0 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 7 | 8 | 122 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 7 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 6 | 8 | 36 | 2 |
| Brandon Coleman | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 18/32 | 182 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 11 | 81 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Sims | 6 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Donteea Dye | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.38