2015 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

24·17

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

TB -6

Total

52

Model margin

+2.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.080EPA / play+0.008
  • 44.6%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.141
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +2.78CPOE-0.02
  • 48.9%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.77
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
TBQ1 15:00414Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:051070Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 8:3334Punt7–0
NOQ1 6:1937Punt7–0
TBQ1 4:25513Punt7–0
NOQ1 1:461170Touchdown14–0
TBQ2 11:571145Touchdown14–7
NOQ2 8:041680Field goal17–7
TBQ2 1:02441Field goal17–10
NOQ2 0:0300End of half17–10
NOQ3 15:00840Punt17–10
TBQ3 11:141055Missed field goal17–10
NOQ3 6:001143Touchdown24–10
TBQ3 0:5335Punt24–10
NOQ3 0:11414Punt24–10
TBQ4 12:571090Touchdown24–17
NOQ4 8:56836Punt24–17
TBQ4 5:22424Punt24–17
NOQ4 4:13930End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees31/4131220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower28853.01
C.J. Spiller320.70
Drew Brees300.00
Marcus Murphy100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead781220
Benjamin Watson711700
Marques Colston68362
Brandon Coleman33320
Brandin Cooks35290
Tim Hightower11100
C.J. Spiller3370
Josh Hill1260

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston18/3218210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin11817.41
Jameis Winston3248.00
Charles Sims5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Sims68640
Mike Evans34390
Austin Seferian-Jenkins36310
Cameron Brate23160
Donteea Dye13160
Adam Humphries1361
Vincent Jackson1150
Doug Martin1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.38