Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
49
Model margin
+2.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.076
- 45.8%Success rate45.3%
- +0.136EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.144
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.2%
- +4.85CPOE+4.53
- 39.0%Third-down rate39.6%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
- 2.08Points / drive2.11
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 30/39 | 282 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 23 | 76 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 10 | 87 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 10 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 4 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 7 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ McCarron | 22/32 | 280 | 2 | 2 |
| Andy Dalton | 3/5 | 59 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| AJ McCarron | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 9 | 132 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.04