2015 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

33·20

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

49

Model margin

+2.0est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.076
  • 45.8%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.136EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.144
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +4.85CPOE+4.53
  • 39.0%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
  • 2.08Points / drive2.11
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
PITQ1 15:001180Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 9:23971Turnover7–0
PITQ1 5:001381Field goal10–0
CINQ2 12:3356Missed field goal10–0
PITQ2 10:46727Field goal13–0
CINQ2 7:00280Touchdown13–7
PITQ2 6:23933Punt13–7
CINQ2 2:2338Punt13–7
PITQ2 1:04527Field goal16–7
CINQ2 0:2200End of half16–7
CINQ3 15:0025Opp touchdown23–7
CINQ3 14:10840Field goal23–10
PITQ3 10:1031Punt23–10
CINQ3 8:0531Punt23–10
PITQ3 7:001259Field goal26–10
CINQ4 14:56971Field goal26–13
PITQ4 10:06533Turnover26–13
CINQ4 7:28624Turnover26–13
PITQ4 5:14414Touchdown33–13
CINQ4 3:491080Touchdown33–20
PITQ4 1:0300End of half33–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger30/3928201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams23763.32
Ben Roethlisberger166.00
Heath Miller122.00
Martavis Bryant111.00
Landry Jones2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown710870
Heath Miller1010660
Markus Wheaton47650
Martavis Bryant79490
DeAngelo Williams22150

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
AJ McCarron22/3228022
Andy Dalton3/55901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard6406.70
Jeremy Hill7162.30
AJ McCarron382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green691321
Marvin Jones68610
Tyler Eifert22420
Tyler Kroft23310
Giovani Bernard35270
Mohamed Sanu25240
Ryan Hewitt1190
Jeremy Hill2280
Rex Burkhead1151

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.04