Closing spread
KC -11.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutBrandon FlowersCBKnee· DNP
- OutCorey LiugetDTFoot· DNP
- OutDontrelle InmanWRNeck· DNP
- OutSteve JohnsonWRGroin· DNP
- DoubtfulSean LissemoreDTShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableD.J. FlukerGConcussion· Limited
- ProbableChris HairstonTAbdomen· Full
- ProbableKing DunlapTAnkle· Full
- ProbableLadarius GreenTEAnkle· Full
- ProbablePhilip RiversQBFoot· Full
- ProbableSteve WilliamsCBConcussion· Full
Chiefs
- OutDe'Anthony ThomasWRConcussion· DNP
- OutHusain AbdullahSConcussion· DNP
- OutJustin HoustonLBKnee· DNP
- OutMike DevitoDEConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableJeff AllenGAnkle· Limited
- ProbableTamba HaliLBKnee· DNP
- ProbableAllen BaileyDECalf· Full
- ProbableDustin ColquittPright Knee· Full
- ProbableMitch MorseCConcussion· Full
- ProbableTravis KelceTEGroin· Full
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:13 | 9 | 52 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:20 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:02 | 3 | 2 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 1:06 | 5 | 35 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q2 14:30 | 12 | 49 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q2 7:16 | 9 | 96 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:53 | 6 | 35 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 0:29 | 3 | 39 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 35 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q3 12:09 | 9 | 52 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| KC | Q3 5:47 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 2:14 | 4 | -5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| KC | Q3 0:45 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q4 11:02 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 3–10 |
| KC | Q4 9:24 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q4 5:00 | 18 | 88 | End of half | 3–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 15/23 | 191 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 6 | 87 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.