Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.022
- 42.8%Success rate40.7%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.013
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.51CPOE+2.87
- 42.3%Third-down rate39.2%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.74Points / drive1.94
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 26/37 | 231 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 6 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 6 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 17/20 | 231 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 4 | 76 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 4 | 55 | 2 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.81