2015 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

17·38

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 36°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

MIN -4

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.022
  • 42.8%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.013
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.51CPOE+2.87
  • 42.3%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.94
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
CHIQ1 15:0048Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:061488Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 5:4432Punt0–7
MINQ1 3:38736Field goal0–10
CHIQ2 14:22922Punt0–10
MINQ2 9:5948Punt0–10
CHIQ2 8:05737Touchdown7–10
MINQ2 5:401075Touchdown7–17
CHIQ2 0:26427End of half7–17
MINQ3 15:0000Turnover7–17
CHIQ3 14:5938Turnover7–17
MINQ3 13:50655Touchdown7–24
CHIQ3 10:401447Field goal10–24
MINQ3 4:2330Punt10–24
CHIQ3 2:01414Punt10–24
MINQ4 14:21631Punt10–24
CHIQ4 10:0210Turnover10–24
MINQ4 9:55313Touchdown10–31
CHIQ4 8:45965Touchdown17–31
MINQ4 5:13944Touchdown17–38
CHIQ4 1:50663End of half17–38

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler26/3723121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte8475.90
Jeremy Langford11464.20
Jay Cutler111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte67571
Zach Miller66570
Eddie Royal56310
Marc Mariani34310
Ka'Deem Carey22180
Jeremy Langford13110
Alshon Jeffery15101
Rob Housler1190
Josh Bellamy1270

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater17/2023140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson18633.50
Matt Asiata5285.60
Teddy Bridgewater4174.31
Jerick McKinnon7101.40
Adam Thielen188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerick McKinnon44761
Stefon Diggs34552
Mike Wallace33370
Jarius Wright33320
Kyle Rudolph22210
Matt Asiata1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.81