2014 · Week 2
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -4
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 16/21 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Rainey | 22 | 144 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mike James | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Robert Herron | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.