Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.074EPA / play+0.000
- 45.5%Success rate46.4%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.195
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.41CPOE-0.01
- 42.1%Third-down rate47.3%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.31Points / drive1.77
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 17/30 | 142 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/30 | 306 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 22 | 73 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Terron Ward | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 11 | 178 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.39