2015 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

13·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CAR -7

Total

45.5

Model margin

-1.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.074EPA / play+0.000
  • 45.5%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.113
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.195
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.41CPOE-0.01
  • 42.1%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.77
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
CARQ1 15:001180Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 9:181670Touchdown7–7
CARQ2 14:55836Punt7–7
ATLQ2 11:08727Punt7–7
CARQ2 7:571053Punt7–7
ATLQ2 1:42319End of half7–7
ATLQ3 15:001055Missed field goal7–7
CARQ3 8:22752Field goal10–7
ATLQ3 5:26580Touchdown10–14
CARQ3 2:12617Punt10–14
ATLQ4 14:01758Turnover10–14
CARQ4 9:2737Field goal13–14
ATLQ4 7:59960Field goal13–17
CARQ4 2:23517Turnover on downs13–17
ATLQ4 1:4836Field goal13–20
CARQ4 1:3026Turnover13–20
ATLQ4 1:0200End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton17/3014200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cameron Artis-Payne5499.80
Cam Newton7466.61
Fozzy Whittaker5326.40
Jerricho Cotchery11616.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen46400
Corey Brown36390
Jerricho Cotchery45240
Ted Ginn1390
Cameron Artis-Payne1170
Fozzy Whittaker2260
Ed Dickson0100
Devin Funchess0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/3030610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman22733.31
Terron Ward231.50
Matt Ryan610.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9111781
Roddy White56670
Jacob Tamme44290
Devonta Freeman35170
Justin Hardy23150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.3%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.39