2011 · Week 7
Final
Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
CHI -1.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play-0.107
- 39.3%Success rate43.0%
- -0.105EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.164
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.3%
- -2.53CPOE-1.20
- 32.9%Third-down rate37.0%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.37Points / drive1.39
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/32 | 226 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 25 | 145 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Williams | 4 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 4 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 29/51 | 264 | 2 | 4 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kregg Lumpkin | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 6 | 11 | 75 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 6 | 10 | 73 | 1 |
| Preston Parker | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 6 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 12 | 25 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.60