2011 · Week 7

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

24·18

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CHI -1.5

Total

44

Model margin

-0.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.110EPA / play-0.107
  • 39.3%Success rate43.0%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.164
  • 9.6%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -2.53CPOE-1.20
  • 32.9%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.39
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. TB are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–TB
CHIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:15618Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:44567Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 8:4239Punt7–0
CHIQ1 6:41421Turnover7–0
TBQ1 5:0110Turnover7–2
CHIQ1 4:541-2Safety7–2
TBQ1 4:49826Punt7–2
CHIQ1 0:24516Punt7–2
TBQ2 12:5637Punt7–2
CHIQ2 11:28779Touchdown14–2
TBQ2 7:4930Punt14–2
CHIQ2 7:24849Punt14–2
TBQ2 2:37977Field goal14–5
TBQ3 15:003-2Punt14–5
CHIQ3 13:54755Touchdown21–5
TBQ3 10:3210Turnover21–5
CHIQ3 10:1731Punt21–5
TBQ3 9:176-2Punt21–5
CHIQ3 6:24526Missed field goal21–5
TBQ3 3:4539Punt21–5
CHIQ3 2:1937Punt21–5
TBQ3 1:01531Turnover21–5
CHIQ4 13:5120Turnover21–5
TBQ4 13:39421Touchdown21–11
CHIQ4 12:1839Punt21–11
TBQ4 9:51653Touchdown21–18
CHIQ4 7:171165Field goal24–18
TBQ4 1:55633Turnover24–18
CHIQ4 0:261-1End of half24–18

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler17/3222612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte251455.81
Marion Barber6396.51
Jay Cutler1-1-1.00
Devin Hester1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roy Williams45591
Johnny Knox36530
Devin Hester49460
Matt Forte24380
Dane Sanzenbacher23130
Marion Barber0100
Kellen Davis0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman29/5126424
Micheal Spurlock0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kregg Lumpkin8151.90
Earnest Graham2136.50
Arrelious Benn122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams611750
Dezmon Briscoe610731
Preston Parker46420
Kregg Lumpkin68370
Kellen Winslow412251
Luke Stocker23140
Arrelious Benn0100
Earnest Graham11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.60