Closing spread
OAK -4
Total
45
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutKing DunlapTAnkle· DNP
- OutKyle EmanuelLBConcussion· DNP
- OutSean LissemoreDTShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableLadarius GreenTEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableSteve JohnsonWRGroin· Limited
- DNPMelvin GordonRBKnee
- ProbableChris HairstonTAbdomen· Limited
- ProbableSteve WilliamsCBHip· Full
Raiders
- OutMario EdwardsDENeck· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutNate AllenSKnee· DNP
- QuestionableNeiko ThorpeCBNeck· Limited
- DNPDenico AutryDTNot Injury Related
- ProbableAmari CooperWRFoot· Full
- ProbableCharles WoodsonSShoulder· Full
- ProbableKhalil MackDEKnee· Full
- ProbableSeth RobertsWRAbdomen· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:28 | 8 | 42 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:09 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:27 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 1:09 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:48 | 6 | 38 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 11:05 | 10 | 49 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:03 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LV | Q2 4:31 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q2 3:01 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:31 | 4 | 6 | End of half | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 12:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q3 10:15 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 9:05 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q3 7:04 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 4:48 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q3 3:23 | 3 | -4 | Safety | 17–12 |
| LV | Q3 2:10 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 17–12 |
| LAC | Q4 15:00 | 16 | 74 | Missed field goal | 17–12 |
| LV | Q4 7:22 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–12 |
| LAC | Q4 6:24 | 3 | 32 | Turnover | 17–18 |
| LV | Q4 4:47 | 1 | 3 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q4 4:42 | 11 | 38 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| LV | Q4 0:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–20 |
| LV | OT | 16 | 87 | Field goal | 20–23 |
| LAC | OT | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 20–23 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.