Closing spread
SEA -11
Total
42
Model margin
+5.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutAndrew DonnalTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableBradley MarquezWRKnee· Full
- QuestionableEric PattersonCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableLamarcus JoynerCBBack· Limited
Seahawks
- OutMarshawn LynchRBAbdomen· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulAnthony McCoyTEKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulJordan HillDTToe· DNP
- QuestionableDoug BaldwinWRHamstring· Full
- QuestionableKam ChancellorSPelvis· DNP
- QuestionableMichael BennettDEToe· Full
- QuestionableRussell OkungTCalf· DNP
- ProbableCliff AvrilDENot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableDeShawn SheadSAnkle· Full
- ProbableJeremy LaneCBKnee· Full
- ProbableJermaine KearseWRCalf· Full
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:38 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:51 | 4 | 25 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:10 | 3 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:34 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:36 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q2 13:35 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| LA | Q2 12:28 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q2 8:55 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 16–0 |
| LA | Q2 6:49 | 1 | 28 | Touchdown | 16–0 |
| SEA | Q2 6:43 | 16 | 57 | Field goal | 16–3 |
| LA | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–3 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 82 | Touchdown | 16–10 |
| LA | Q3 8:23 | 10 | 34 | Punt | 16–10 |
| SEA | Q3 3:05 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 16–10 |
| LA | Q3 0:53 | 12 | 58 | Touchdown | 23–10 |
| SEA | Q4 10:34 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 23–10 |
| LA | Q4 7:17 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 23–10 |
| SEA | Q4 4:46 | 7 | 49 | Turnover | 23–10 |
| LA | Q4 2:38 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 23–10 |
| SEA | Q4 1:07 | 5 | 40 | Touchdown | 23–17 |
| LA | Q4 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 25/41 | 289 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 8 | 10 | 118 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.