Closing spread
SEA -11
Total
42
Model margin
+5.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 25/41 | 289 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 8 | 10 | 118 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.