2015 · Week 16 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
-0.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.044
- 42.6%Success rate42.7%
- +0.166EPA / dropback-0.008
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.105
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- +5.62CPOE-0.86
- 43.9%Third-down rate39.1%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.81Points / drive1.56
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 31/46 | 365 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 17 | 49 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 9 | 11 | 129 | 2 |
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 12 | 80 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 37/56 | 380 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Sam Bradford | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 13 | 17 | 122 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 6 | 8 | 104 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Krause | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.56