2015 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

38·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

48

Model margin

-0.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • +0.022EPA / play-0.044
  • 42.6%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback-0.008
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.105
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +5.62CPOE-0.86
  • 43.9%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 61.3%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.56
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00752Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 12:0839Punt0–7
PHIQ1 11:08516Punt0–7
WASQ1 8:35674Touchdown6–7
PHIQ1 5:5033Punt6–7
WASQ1 4:40761Touchdown13–7
PHIQ1 1:00635Punt13–7
WASQ2 14:0836Punt13–7
PHIQ2 12:00411Punt13–7
WASQ2 10:12411Punt13–7
PHIQ2 8:11647Field goal13–10
WASQ2 5:5630Punt13–10
PHIQ2 4:15111Turnover13–10
WASQ2 4:01725Field goal16–10
PHIQ2 1:43616Punt16–10
WASQ2 0:29360End of half16–10
WASQ3 15:00521Punt16–10
PHIQ3 12:1249Punt16–10
WASQ3 11:031154Touchdown23–10
PHIQ3 6:58648Touchdown23–17
WASQ3 4:4735Punt23–17
PHIQ3 4:0138Opp touchdown30–17
PHIQ3 3:15621Punt30–17
WASQ3 1:391387Touchdown38–17
PHIQ4 8:551482Touchdown38–24
WASQ4 4:3439Punt38–24
PHIQ4 3:181039Turnover on downs38–24
WASQ4 1:3400End of half38–24

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins31/4636540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris17492.90
Pierre Thomas4225.50
Kirk Cousins5-4-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed9111292
Pierre Garcon712801
Pierre Thomas78670
DeSean Jackson46400
Ryan Grant13240
Jamison Crowder23130
Chris Thompson11121
Alex Smith0100
Alfred Morris0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford37/5638010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray5275.41
Darren Sproles591.80
Ryan Mathews451.31
Sam Bradford242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz13171220
Jordan Matthews681041
Darren Sproles79560
Nelson Agholor25350
DeMarco Murray34240
Brent Celek11180
Ryan Mathews23130
Josh Huff1280
Jonathan Krause1270
Riley Cooper0100
Kenjon Barner13-70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.56