Closing spread
ATL -6
Total
53.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.080EPA / play+0.000
- 44.6%Success rate46.4%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.195
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- +2.78CPOE-0.01
- 48.9%Third-down rate47.3%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.09Points / drive1.77
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 32/42 | 323 | 1 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Coleman | 5 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 6 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 6 | 10 | 59 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/36 | 334 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 25 | 76 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 11 | 149 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 2 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| Justin Hardy | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.08