2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

20·17

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -6

Total

53.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.080EPA / play+0.000
  • 44.6%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.113
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.195
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +2.78CPOE-0.01
  • 48.9%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.77
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
NOQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:341156Field goal0–3
NOQ1 6:431078Touchdown7–3
ATLQ1 3:13882Touchdown7–10
NOQ2 14:24968Touchdown14–10
ATLQ2 10:47751Missed field goal14–10
NOQ2 7:12748Turnover on downs14–10
ATLQ2 3:291068Touchdown14–17
NOQ2 0:2600End of half14–17
ATLQ3 15:001022Punt14–17
NOQ3 10:371264Field goal17–17
ATLQ3 5:291364Turnover17–17
NOQ4 14:141694Turnover17–17
ATLQ4 6:04771Punt17–17
NOQ4 2:3937Punt17–17
ATLQ4 1:4710Turnover17–17
NOQ4 1:42414Field goal20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees32/4232310
Travaris Cadet0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower16664.11
Travaris Cadet362.00
Drew Brees3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Coleman58810
Travaris Cadet66770
Benjamin Watson610591
Tim Hightower55410
Willie Snead34350
Brandin Cooks56220
Michael Hoomanawanui1140
Josh Hill1340

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3633421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman25763.00
Terron Ward11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9111490
Jacob Tamme45610
Tony Moeaki23471
Justin Hardy46340
Devonta Freeman24181
Roddy White14100
Levine Toilolo1280
Patrick DiMarco1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.08