Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- QuestionableD.J. HaydenCBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableNeiko ThorpeCBNeck· Full
- ProbableAmari CooperWRFoot· Full
- ProbableCharles WoodsonSShoulder· Full
- ProbableKhalil MackDEKnee· Full
Chiefs
- QuestionableHusain AbdullahSConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableJah ReidTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJustin HoustonLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTamba HaliLBThumb· DNP
- DNPDe'Anthony ThomasWRNot Injury Related
- DNPMike DevitoDENot Injury Related
- ProbableAlbert WilsonWRShin· Full
- ProbableDee FordLBKnee· Full
- ProbableJeff AllenGAnkle· Full
- ProbableSpencer WareRBRib· Full
- ProbableTravis KelceTEGroin· Full
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 10:52 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 6:56 | 12 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 0:51 | 4 | 32 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 13:40 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 8:13 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 6:27 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 6:20 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 9–14 |
| KC | Q2 3:34 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–14 |
| KC | Q2 3:27 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LV | Q2 1:57 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 10–14 |
| KC | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–14 |
| KC | Q3 13:54 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 11:02 | 3 | -3 | Safety | 10–16 |
| KC | Q3 9:01 | 4 | 43 | Touchdown | 10–23 |
| LV | Q3 7:03 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 10–23 |
| KC | Q3 3:26 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 10–23 |
| LV | Q3 0:18 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 10–23 |
| KC | Q4 12:05 | 13 | 62 | Turnover on downs | 10–23 |
| LV | Q4 3:15 | 6 | 43 | Touchdown | 17–23 |
| KC | Q4 2:01 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–23 |
| LV | Q4 1:34 | 6 | 10 | End of half | 17–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 14/24 | 156 | 2 | 2 |
| Cairo Santos | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.53
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.