2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

36·6

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.133
  • 47.1%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.255EPA / dropback+0.260
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.059
  • 10.9%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +7.64CPOE+4.51
  • 47.8%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 2.18Points / drive2.34
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00419Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:411398Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 5:2220Turnover7–0
SEAQ1 4:3337Field goal10–0
ARIQ1 3:081265Touchdown10–6
SEAQ2 11:591180Touchdown17–6
ARIQ2 6:02611Punt23–6
SEAQ2 3:5818Touchdown24–6
ARIQ2 3:5136Punt24–6
SEAQ2 2:59327Touchdown30–6
ARIQ2 2:0839Punt30–6
SEAQ2 1:37824Missed field goal30–6
ARIQ2 0:27437Missed field goal30–6
SEAQ3 15:00950Field goal33–6
ARIQ3 9:3947Turnover33–6
SEAQ3 8:176-1Field goal36–6
ARIQ3 4:4938Punt36–6
SEAQ3 3:21511Punt36–6
ARIQ3 0:124-8Punt36–6
SEAQ4 14:13314Punt36–6
ARIQ4 11:361378Turnover36–6
SEAQ4 5:13838End of half36–6

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson19/2819730
Tarvaris Jackson3/42800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christine Michael171026.00
Bryce Brown9202.21
Russell Wilson5132.60
Tyler Lockett273.50
Kasen Williams155.00
Tarvaris Jackson2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin57460
Cooper Helfet46420
Tyler Lockett24360
Jermaine Kearse33341
Chase Coffman45291
Kevin Smith13170
Kasen Williams1180
Fred Jackson1160
Christine Michael0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer12/2512911
Drew Stanton8/188402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson11252.30
Andre Ellington221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald67551
John Brown411450
Jermaine Gresham23360
David Johnson38340
Michael Floyd14160
Troy Niklas1180
Darren Fells1270
Andre Ellington1270
Brittan Golden1150
Jaron Brown0100
J.J. Nelson0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.34