Closing spread
ARI -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.133
- 47.1%Success rate47.7%
- +0.255EPA / dropback+0.260
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.059
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.8%
- +7.64CPOE+4.51
- 47.8%Third-down rate47.4%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 2.18Points / drive2.34
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 19/28 | 197 | 3 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3/4 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Michael | 17 | 102 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kasen Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Chase Coffman | 4 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kasen Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 12/25 | 129 | 1 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 8/18 | 84 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| John Brown | 4 | 11 | 45 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.34