Closing spread
STL -3
Total
39
Model margin
+0.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- DoubtfulTodd GurleyRBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableAndrew DonnalTKnee· Limited
- DNPDoug WorthingtonDTThigh
- DNPEric PattersonCBAnkle
- DNPNick FairleyDTConcussion
- ProbableMark BarronSConcussion· Limited
- ProbableEthan WestbrooksDTConcussion· Full
- ProbableMichael BrockersDTThigh· Full
49ers
- OutMichael WilhoiteLBAnkle· DNP
- OutQuinton DialDTBack· DNP
- DoubtfulJaquiski TarttSKnee· Limited
- DoubtfulMarcus MartinCConcussion· Limited
- ProbableArik ArmsteadDTShoulder· Limited
- ProbableBruce MillerRBFoot· Limited
- ProbableTorrey SmithWRBack· Limited
- ProbableAhmad BrooksLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableDontae JohnsonCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableEli HaroldLBFinger· Full
- ProbableEric ReidSHip· Full
- ProbableErik PearsTKnee· Full
- ProbableJoe StaleyTKnee· Full
- ProbableNavorro BowmanLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableTramaine BrockCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableTrenton BrownTKnee· Full
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 11:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:26 | 5 | 72 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:11 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 3:19 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:52 | 7 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 11:19 | 6 | 55 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 9:03 | 11 | 51 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| SF | Q2 2:43 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:47 | 2 | 3 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| SF | Q2 1:31 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:29 | 3 | 40 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| SF | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–10 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 70 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| LA | Q3 9:37 | 14 | 56 | Missed field goal | 16–13 |
| SF | Q3 1:13 | 10 | 24 | Turnover on downs | 16–13 |
| LA | Q4 12:39 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 16–13 |
| SF | Q4 10:21 | 11 | 62 | Field goal | 16–16 |
| LA | Q4 4:28 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 16–16 |
| SF | Q4 2:45 | 6 | 42 | Punt | 16–16 |
| LA | Q4 1:32 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 16–16 |
| SF | Q4 0:40 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–16 |
| SF | OT | 6 | 33 | Punt | 16–16 |
| LA | OT | 11 | 51 | Missed field goal | 16–16 |
| SF | OT | 4 | 54 | Field goal | 16–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 28/44 | 354 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DuJuan Harris | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DuJuan Harris | 8 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.46
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.