Closing spread
STL -3
Total
39
Model margin
+0.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 28/44 | 354 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DuJuan Harris | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DuJuan Harris | 8 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.46
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.