2015 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

10·38

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CAR -10

Total

44

Model margin

+6.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.074
  • 44.4%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.141EPA / rush-0.022
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.02CPOE+0.41
  • 41.4%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.31
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
CARQ1 15:001134Punt0–0
TBQ1 8:54830Punt0–0
CARQ1 4:32426Turnover0–0
TBQ1 3:06424Field goal3–0
CARQ1 1:28972Touchdown3–7
TBQ2 12:3531Punt3–7
CARQ2 11:43529Field goal3–10
TBQ2 9:29328Turnover3–10
CARQ2 8:32746Touchdown3–17
TBQ2 4:173-1Punt3–17
CARQ2 2:43349Touchdown3–24
TBQ2 1:521473End of half3–24
TBQ3 15:0064Punt3–24
CARQ3 11:5738Punt3–24
CARQ3 10:0123Touchdown3–31
TBQ3 9:18980Touchdown10–31
CARQ3 4:45739Turnover10–31
TBQ3 1:29751Turnover10–31
CARQ4 13:261162Touchdown10–38
TBQ4 7:221796Turnover on downs10–38
CARQ4 1:0600End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston29/4732502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin15483.20
Charles Sims4153.80
Jameis Winston3144.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans49990
Charles Sims911740
Doug Martin77600
Austin Seferian-Jenkins37480
Donteea Dye47310
Cameron Brate12100
Luke Stocker1130
Russell Shepard0100
Adam Humphries0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/2629320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cameron Artis-Payne14443.11
Cam Newton6101.72
Derek Anderson2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Funchess781201
Corey Brown36580
Jerricho Cotchery22521
Brenton Bersin22250
Cameron Artis-Payne22170
Greg Olsen22160
Ed Dickson2300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.1%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.06