2015 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
CAR -10
Total
44
Model margin
+6.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.074
- 44.4%Success rate45.5%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.022
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.02CPOE+0.41
- 41.4%Third-down rate42.1%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 1.77Points / drive2.31
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 29/47 | 325 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 4 | 9 | 99 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 9 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 7 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Donteea Dye | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/26 | 293 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 2 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Funchess | 7 | 8 | 120 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 3 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 2 | 52 | 1 |
| Brenton Bersin | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.06