2015 · Week 17 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+2.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.073
- 42.6%Success rate43.9%
- +0.166EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.077
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- +5.62CPOE-0.85
- 43.9%Third-down rate34.0%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 1.81Points / drive1.31
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 12/15 | 176 | 3 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 7/11 | 128 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 19 | 100 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 7 | 109 | 1 |
| Rashad Ross | 2 | 3 | 71 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Moore | 33/48 | 435 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 12 | 92 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 8 | 9 | 173 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 4 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 6 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Darren McFadden | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 7 | 53 | 2 |
| James Hanna | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.02
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.21