2015 · Week 17 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+2.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Commanders
- OutDashon GoldsonSShoulder· DNP
- OutQuinton DunbarCBQuadricep· DNP
- DoubtfulMatt JonesRBHip· DNP
- DoubtfulPerry RileyLBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableDeAngelo HallCBCalf· Limited
- QuestionableDeSean JacksonWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJason HatcherDENeck· Limited
- QuestionablePierre ThomasRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTrent WilliamsTKnee· DNP
- ProbableChris ThompsonRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableJosh LeRibeusCAnkle· Full
- ProbableKeenan RobinsonLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableMorgan MosesTAnkle· Full
- ProbableRyan GrantWRAbdomen· Full
- ProbableWill BlackmonCBShin· Full
- ProbableWill ComptonLBShin· Full
Cowboys
- DoubtfulLa'el CollinsGAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableMorris ClaiborneCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableSean LeeLBHamstring· DNP
- ProbableCole BeasleyWRKnee· Limited
- ProbableJeff HeathSShoulder· Limited
- ProbableJeremy MinceyDEHip· Limited
- ProbableKyle WilberLBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableDemarcus LawrenceDEChest· Full
- ProbableDevin StreetWRConcussion· Full
- ProbableGeoff SwaimTEIllness· Full
- ProbableGreg HardyDEIllness· Full
- ProbableJason WittenTEChest· Full
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.073
- 42.6%Success rate43.9%
- +0.166EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.077
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- +5.62CPOE-0.85
- 43.9%Third-down rate34.0%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 1.81Points / drive1.31
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 39–16 since 1999
DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:32 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:47 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 9:51 | 2 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 9:07 | 6 | 26 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q1 5:52 | 3 | 43 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| DAL | Q1 4:20 | 2 | 14 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| WAS | Q1 3:41 | 8 | 30 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| DAL | Q1 0:19 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 21–0 |
| WAS | Q2 12:34 | 7 | 65 | Field goal | 24–0 |
| DAL | Q2 8:16 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| WAS | Q2 3:35 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 24–7 |
| DAL | Q2 1:32 | 7 | 86 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| WAS | Q2 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–14 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–14 |
| DAL | Q3 13:30 | 4 | 29 | Punt | 24–14 |
| WAS | Q3 11:18 | 14 | 84 | Field goal | 27–14 |
| DAL | Q3 2:57 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 27–14 |
| WAS | Q3 1:23 | 4 | 82 | Touchdown | 34–14 |
| DAL | Q4 14:51 | 8 | 78 | Turnover | 34–14 |
| WAS | Q4 12:27 | 1 | -1 | Safety | 34–16 |
| DAL | Q4 12:20 | 6 | 64 | Turnover | 34–16 |
| WAS | Q4 10:55 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 34–16 |
| DAL | Q4 7:50 | 13 | 99 | Touchdown | 34–23 |
| WAS | Q4 4:18 | 7 | 30 | End of half | 34–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 12/15 | 176 | 3 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 7/11 | 128 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 19 | 100 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 7 | 109 | 1 |
| Rashad Ross | 2 | 3 | 71 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Moore | 33/48 | 435 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 12 | 92 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 8 | 9 | 173 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 4 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 6 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Darren McFadden | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 7 | 53 | 2 |
| James Hanna | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.02
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.21