Closing spread
PIT -2
Total
46
Model margin
-3.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.076
- 45.8%Success rate45.3%
- +0.136EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.144
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.2%
- +4.85CPOE+4.53
- 39.0%Third-down rate39.6%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
- 2.08Points / drive2.11
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/31 | 229 | 1 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 2/5 | 11 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Todman | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 44 | 44.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 12 | 119 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 4 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 5 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ McCarron | 23/41 | 212 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| AJ McCarron | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Tyler Eifert | 5 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.42
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.37