2015 · WC · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

18·16

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB A.J. McCarron

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -2

Total

46

Model margin

-3.4est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.076
  • 45.8%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.136EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.144
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +4.85CPOE+4.53
  • 39.0%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
  • 2.08Points / drive2.11
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
PITQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:29313Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:07520Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:14933Punt0–0
PITQ1 3:441063Punt0–0
CINQ2 13:0637Punt0–0
PITQ2 11:3132Punt0–0
CINQ2 10:3233Punt0–0
PITQ2 8:226-1Turnover0–0
CINQ2 5:483-3Turnover0–0
PITQ2 4:57535Field goal3–0
CINQ2 2:2734Punt3–0
PITQ2 1:49955Field goal6–0
CINQ2 0:3300End of half6–0
CINQ3 15:00642Turnover6–0
PITQ3 12:13447Field goal9–0
CINQ3 10:09521Punt9–0
PITQ3 8:31682Touchdown15–0
CINQ3 5:021035Turnover15–0
PITQ3 1:374-10Punt15–0
CINQ4 14:4744Touchdown15–7
PITQ4 13:57522Punt15–7
CINQ4 11:111270Field goal15–10
PITQ4 5:1237Punt15–10
CINQ4 3:28745Touchdown15–16
PITQ4 1:5010Turnover15–16
CINQ4 1:3616Turnover15–16
PITQ4 1:23944Field goal18–16
CINQ4 0:1410End of half18–16

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger18/3122910
Landry Jones2/51101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Todman11655.90
Fitzgerald Toussaint17583.40
Martavis Bryant14444.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown7121190
Fitzgerald Toussaint48600
Martavis Bryant56291
Markus Wheaton25230
Heath Miller2390
Darrius Heyward-Bey0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
AJ McCarron23/4121211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill12504.21
Giovani Bernard6284.70
AJ McCarron591.80
Rex Burkhead144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green58711
Tyler Eifert59580
Marvin Jones47320
Jeremy Hill34270
Mohamed Sanu35170
Rex Burkhead1150
Giovani Bernard2420
Tyler Kroft0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.1%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.42
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.37