2016 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Case Keenum

0·28

49ers

San Francisco

QB Blaine Gabbert

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

LA -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+2.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge map49ers
  • -0.203EPA / play-0.089
  • 36.6%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.222EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.169
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -6.92CPOE-5.73
  • 32.2%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 0.97Points / drive1.59
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SF
LAQ1 15:00829Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:20621Punt0–0
LAQ1 8:553-4Punt0–0
SFQ1 6:421047Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 3:2436Punt0–7
SFQ1 1:44741Turnover on downs0–7
LAQ2 14:10634Turnover0–7
SFQ2 11:00538Touchdown0–7
SFQ2 9:37418Touchdown0–14
LAQ2 8:16529Punt0–14
SFQ2 5:26636Turnover0–14
LAQ2 3:1732Punt0–14
SFQ2 2:2433Punt0–14
LAQ2 1:073-9Punt0–14
SFQ2 0:1600End of half0–14
SFQ3 15:003-10Punt0–14
LAQ3 13:0434Punt0–14
SFQ3 11:0833Punt0–14
LAQ3 10:1635Punt0–14
SFQ3 9:093-2Punt0–14
LAQ3 7:36519Punt0–14
SFQ3 5:0332Punt0–14
LAQ3 3:52512Turnover0–14
SFQ3 1:021275Touchdown0–21
LAQ4 12:0736Punt0–21
SFQ4 11:051248Touchdown0–28
LAQ4 5:141053Turnover on downs0–28
SFQ4 2:3331Punt0–28
LAQ4 0:2400End of half0–28

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum17/3513002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley17472.80
Case Keenum3103.30
Malcolm Brown155.00
Tavon Austin122.00
Benny Cunningham111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt46670
Brian Quick35230
Lance Kendricks23150
Tavon Austin412130
Malcolm Brown1180
Benny Cunningham1170
Tyler Higbee1420
Todd Gurley13-50

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert22/3517010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde23883.82
Blaine Gabbert9434.80
Shaun Draughn7182.61
Mike Davis310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley711610
Quinton Patton55600
Shaun Draughn22180
Garrett Celek14150
Vance McDonald23141
Torrey Smith26130
Carlos Hyde2350
Blaine Gabbert11-160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.96