Closing spread
LA -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play-0.089
- 36.6%Success rate39.6%
- -0.222EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.169
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.0%
- -6.92CPOE-5.73
- 32.2%Third-down rate34.6%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 0.97Points / drive1.59
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 17/35 | 130 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 17 | 47 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 4 | 12 | 13 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 22/35 | 170 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 23 | 88 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 7 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 5 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 1 | -16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96