2016 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

20·19

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.126
  • 40.8%Success rate48.6%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback+0.226
  • -0.142EPA / rush+0.006
  • 7.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.63CPOE+4.07
  • 36.0%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.46Points / drive2.52
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
DALQ1 15:001470Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 6:35615Punt0–3
DALQ1 4:071462Field goal0–6
NYGQ2 11:09475Touchdown7–6
DALQ2 9:361153Field goal7–9
NYGQ2 4:021395Touchdown13–9
DALQ2 0:0700End of half13–9
NYGQ3 15:0021Turnover13–9
DALQ3 14:14735Touchdown13–16
NYGQ3 10:475-5Punt13–16
DALQ3 8:3631Punt13–16
NYGQ3 7:33616Punt13–16
DALQ3 4:001039Field goal13–19
NYGQ4 13:59420Punt13–19
DALQ4 11:5945Punt13–19
NYGQ4 10:12959Touchdown20–19
DALQ4 6:13718Punt20–19
NYGQ4 3:57740Punt20–19
DALQ4 1:05645End of half20–19

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning19/2820731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings18754.20
Shane Vereen6386.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.48730
Sterling Shepard34431
Victor Cruz44341
Shane Vereen35230
Will Tye33160
Larry Donnell12151
Rashad Jennings1230

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/4522700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott20512.51
Alfred Morris7355.00
Dak Prescott2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten914660
Cole Beasley812650
Terrance Williams34340
Geoff Swaim11210
Lance Dunbar12160
Brice Butler12160
Dez Bryant1580
Ezekiel Elliott1210
Alfred Morris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.84