Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.126
- 40.8%Success rate48.6%
- -0.035EPA / dropback+0.226
- -0.142EPA / rush+0.006
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.63CPOE+4.07
- 36.0%Third-down rate43.8%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.46Points / drive2.52
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/28 | 207 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Victor Cruz | 4 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/45 | 227 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 20 | 51 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 9 | 14 | 66 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 8 | 12 | 65 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.84