Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- LimitedJason VerrettCBCalf
Chiefs
- DoubtfulJamaal CharlesRBKnee· Limited
- LimitedTamba HaliLBKnee
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 46 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 11:51 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| KC | Q1 8:27 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 5:57 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| KC | Q2 14:06 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 14–3 |
| LAC | Q2 11:26 | 7 | 33 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| KC | Q2 7:54 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LAC | Q2 3:39 | 9 | 38 | Punt | 21–3 |
| KC | Q2 0:58 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LAC | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–3 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 21–3 |
| KC | Q3 12:23 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LAC | Q3 10:02 | 8 | 34 | Field goal | 24–3 |
| KC | Q3 6:02 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| LAC | Q3 2:47 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 27–10 |
| KC | Q4 13:24 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 27–10 |
| LAC | Q4 12:53 | 3 | 8 | Missed field goal | 27–10 |
| KC | Q4 11:20 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| LAC | Q4 9:18 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 27–17 |
| KC | Q4 6:49 | 11 | 62 | Field goal | 27–20 |
| LAC | Q4 3:09 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 27–20 |
| KC | Q4 1:49 | 4 | 37 | Touchdown | 27–27 |
| LAC | Q4 1:03 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 27–27 |
| KC | OT | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 27–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 34/48 | 363 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 11 | 70 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 7 | 8 | 129 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.52
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.