Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 34/48 | 363 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 11 | 70 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 7 | 8 | 129 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.52
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.