2016 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

25·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Josh McCown

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -4

Total

42

Model margin

-3.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • -0.060EPA / play-0.050
  • 40.7%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.131
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -0.41CPOE-1.42
  • 38.2%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.37
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:001085Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 9:45611Punt0–13
CLEQ1 6:58185Touchdown0–14
BALQ1 6:4724Turnover0–14
CLEQ1 5:59427Touchdown2–20
BALQ1 4:341248Turnover on downs2–20
CLEQ2 14:50736Punt2–20
BALQ2 10:31833Punt2–20
CLEQ2 7:14618Punt2–20
BALQ2 3:14666Touchdown9–20
CLEQ2 1:15210Turnover9–20
BALQ2 0:42627Field goal12–20
BALQ3 15:00675Touchdown19–20
CLEQ3 12:1767Punt19–20
BALQ3 9:10521Turnover19–20
CLEQ3 7:35515Punt19–20
BALQ3 6:00823Punt19–20
CLEQ3 1:32649Missed field goal19–20
BALQ4 13:54532Field goal22–20
CLEQ4 11:19610Punt22–20
BALQ4 8:011041Field goal25–20
CLEQ4 2:53945Turnover25–20
BALQ4 0:1311End of half25–20

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/4530222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West11423.80
Justin Forsett14372.60
Joe Flacco111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Pitta9121020
Steve Smith36640
Mike Wallace46412
Breshad Perriman25320
Crockett Gillmore13220
Terrance West13150
Justin Forsett3590
Chris Moore1290
Kamar Aiken0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown20/3326022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell181337.41
Duke Johnson3124.00
Josh McCown200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Coleman581042
Duke Johnson45440
Gary Barnidge45370
Terrelle Pryor310320
Andrew Hawkins33280
Isaiah Crowell11150
Rashard Higgins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.25