Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
42
Model margin
-3.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play-0.050
- 40.7%Success rate39.2%
- -0.041EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.131
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.2%
- -0.41CPOE-1.42
- 38.2%Third-down rate36.2%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.63Points / drive1.37
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/45 | 302 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Pitta | 9 | 12 | 102 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 6 | 41 | 2 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 20/33 | 260 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 18 | 133 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Coleman | 5 | 8 | 104 | 2 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 3 | 10 | 32 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.25