2016 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

16·24

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

48

Model margin

+2.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.052EPA / play+0.085
  • 45.3%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.043
  • 7.8%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +2.98CPOE+1.74
  • 38.9%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.24
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:13619Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:141052Turnover0–0
CINQ1 6:2533Punt0–0
PITQ1 5:29566Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 3:46768Field goal3–7
PITQ1 0:23837Punt3–7
CINQ2 11:3532Punt3–7
PITQ2 10:123-6Punt3–7
CINQ2 8:3139Punt3–7
PITQ2 7:2030Punt3–7
CINQ2 5:5531Punt3–7
PITQ2 5:0536Field goal3–10
CINQ2 4:10630Punt3–10
PITQ2 1:54412Turnover3–10
CINQ2 0:48753Field goal6–10
CINQ3 15:0033Punt6–10
PITQ3 14:02517Punt6–10
CINQ3 11:43426Punt6–10
PITQ3 9:36791Touchdown6–17
CINQ3 6:161258Field goal9–17
PITQ3 2:10516Punt9–17
CINQ3 0:09516Punt9–17
PITQ4 13:421268Touchdown9–24
CINQ4 6:48875Touchdown16–24
PITQ4 3:2534Punt16–24
CINQ4 3:00542Turnover16–24
PITQ4 1:5032Punt16–24
CINQ4 0:0817Turnover16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton31/5436610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill11222.00
Giovani Bernard5173.40
Andy Dalton273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Giovani Bernard9111001
Tyler Boyd68780
Brandon LaFell38390
A.J. Green28380
Jeremy Hill35370
Tyler Kroft34350
Alex Erickson11200
James Wright11100
C.J. Uzomah3890

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger19/3725932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams32942.90
Ben Roethlisberger11414.00
Daryl Richardson166.00
Sammie Coates166.00
Fitzgerald Toussaint144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammie Coates25970
Antonio Brown411390
DeAngelo Williams45381
Jesse James35291
Xavier Grimble24261
Fitzgerald Toussaint1190
Eli Rogers1390
Darrius Heyward-Bey1270
David Johnson1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.26