Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
48
Model margin
+2.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play+0.085
- 45.3%Success rate46.0%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.8%
- +2.98CPOE+1.74
- 38.9%Third-down rate41.9%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.86Points / drive2.24
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 31/54 | 366 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 9 | 11 | 100 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| James Wright | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 19/37 | 259 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 32 | 94 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Daryl Richardson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammie Coates | 2 | 5 | 97 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 11 | 39 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Xavier Grimble | 2 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.26