2016 · Week 2 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play+0.118
- 48.6%Success rate48.2%
- +0.226EPA / dropback+0.202
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.033
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.6%
- +4.07CPOE+4.99
- 43.8%Third-down rate44.9%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
- 2.52Points / drive2.32
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/30 | 292 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 7 | 12 | 102 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 28/46 | 364 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 1 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 6 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.77