2016 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

27·23

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

WAS -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.126EPA / play+0.118
  • 48.6%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.226EPA / dropback+0.202
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.033
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +4.07CPOE+4.99
  • 43.8%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.32
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
DALQ1 15:001276Field goal3–0
WASQ1 9:25537Punt3–0
DALQ1 6:521088Touchdown10–0
WASQ1 1:391075Touchdown10–7
DALQ2 13:08525Punt10–7
WASQ2 10:383-5Punt10–7
DALQ2 9:051038Field goal13–7
WASQ2 4:341161Field goal13–10
DALQ2 0:2614End of half13–10
WASQ3 15:00875Touchdown13–17
DALQ3 11:161075Touchdown20–17
WASQ3 5:41323Field goal20–17
WASQ3 3:4534Field goal20–20
DALQ3 2:0600Turnover20–20
DALQ3 2:0629Turnover20–20
WASQ3 1:39416Field goal20–23
DALQ3 0:0434Punt20–23
WASQ4 12:46673Turnover20–23
DALQ4 10:351260Touchdown27–23
WASQ4 4:45719Turnover on downs27–23
DALQ4 1:5631Punt27–23
WASQ4 1:30654End of half27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/3029200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott21834.01
Alfred Morris571.41
Lance Dunbar362.00
Dak Prescott166.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant7121020
Cole Beasley56750
Jason Witten34510
Geoff Swaim22290
Lance Dunbar22260
Ezekiel Elliott2240
Brice Butler0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins28/4636411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Jones13614.71
Kirk Cousins22010.00
Chris Thompson210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed57700
Chris Thompson34570
Josh Doctson15570
Vernon Davis55510
DeSean Jackson35400
Jamison Crowder68391
Pierre Garcon27250
Niles Paul11160
Ryan Grant1150
Matt Jones1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.77