Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
38
Model margin
-3.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.203
- 44.0%Success rate36.6%
- +0.102EPA / dropback-0.222
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.170
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.8%
- +4.81CPOE-6.92
- 38.7%Third-down rate32.2%
- 41.8%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.88Points / drive0.97
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/35 | 254 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Michael | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 7 | -7 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 4 | 99 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 18/30 | 239 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 19 | 51 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 6 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 5 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.9%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.50
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-3.84