2016 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

3·9

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Case Keenum

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SEA -5.5

Total

38

Model margin

-3.8est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapRams
  • +0.022EPA / play-0.203
  • 44.0%Success rate36.6%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback-0.222
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.170
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +4.81CPOE-6.92
  • 38.7%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 41.8%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.88Points / drive0.97
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–LA
LAQ1 15:00939Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 10:383-4Punt0–3
LAQ1 8:53415Punt0–3
SEAQ1 6:531571Field goal3–3
LAQ2 14:4534Punt3–3
SEAQ2 13:43624Punt3–3
LAQ2 10:2339Punt3–3
SEAQ2 8:551020Punt3–3
LAQ2 4:19870Field goal3–6
SEAQ2 1:04736End of half3–6
SEAQ3 15:00625Punt3–6
LAQ3 10:52845Punt3–6
SEAQ3 6:20526Punt3–6
LAQ3 3:38863Field goal3–9
SEAQ4 14:1034Punt3–9
LAQ4 12:4163Punt3–9
SEAQ4 9:14840Punt3–9
LAQ4 6:311137Punt3–9
SEAQ4 1:53464Turnover3–9
LAQ4 0:4500End of half3–9

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3525400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christine Michael10606.00
Russell Wilson5142.80
Alex Collins200.00
Thomas Rawls7-7-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett44990
Jimmy Graham34420
Paul Richardson36350
Christine Michael34260
Doug Baldwin36200
Thomas Rawls33150
Jermaine Kearse26110
Luke Willson1160

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum18/3023900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley19512.70
Tavon Austin263.00
Case Keenum351.70
Benny Cunningham122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt610940
Lance Kendricks46610
Tavon Austin59500
Todd Gurley11190
Brian Quick1180
Benny Cunningham1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%3.1%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.9%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-3.84