2016 · Week 3 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Blaine Gabbert

18·37

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -10.5

Total

42

Model margin

+7.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.022
  • 39.6%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback+0.102
  • -0.169EPA / rush-0.126
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -5.73CPOE+4.81
  • 34.6%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.88
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00375Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 14:1737Punt0–7
SEAQ1 12:321587Touchdown0–14
SFQ1 4:0839Punt0–14
SEAQ1 2:2239Punt0–14
SFQ1 0:11417Punt0–14
SEAQ2 13:41421Turnover0–14
SFQ2 11:39426Field goal3–14
SEAQ2 9:41473Touchdown3–21
SFQ2 7:53745Missed field goal3–21
SEAQ2 3:52752Field goal3–24
SFQ2 1:133-2Punt3–24
SEAQ2 0:401-6End of half3–24
SFQ3 15:00418Punt3–24
SEAQ3 13:2835Punt3–24
SFQ3 12:2336Punt3–24
SEAQ3 11:0172Field goal3–27
SFQ3 6:5332Turnover3–27
SEAQ3 6:03616Field goal3–30
SFQ3 2:2934Punt3–30
SEAQ3 1:30758Touchdown3–37
SFQ4 12:531175Touchdown10–37
SEAQ4 7:50725Turnover10–37
SFQ4 3:40847Touchdown18–37
SEAQ4 0:5613End of half18–37

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert14/2511901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde211034.92
Blaine Gabbert5224.40
Shaun Draughn5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith34350
Garrett Celek34250
Jeremy Kerley26240
Rod Streater11190
Quinton Patton1480
Vance McDonald2240
Shaun Draughn1220
Carlos Hyde1120
Blake Bell0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2324310
Trevone Boykin7/96511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christine Michael201065.32
Terrence Magee3124.00
Alex Collins4123.00
Russell Wilson133.00
Trevone Boykin2-2-1.00
Doug Baldwin1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin8101641
Jimmy Graham691001
Alex Collins22190
Jermaine Kearse22110
Luke Willson2390
Christine Michael2350
Tanner McEvoy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.01