Closing spread
SEA -10.5
Total
42
Model margin
+7.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.022
- 39.6%Success rate44.0%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.7%
- -5.73CPOE+4.81
- 34.6%Third-down rate38.7%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate41.8%
- 1.59Points / drive1.88
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 14/25 | 119 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 21 | 103 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Rod Streater | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/23 | 243 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevone Boykin | 7/9 | 65 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Michael | 20 | 106 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Terrence Magee | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Trevone Boykin | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 8 | 10 | 164 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 9 | 100 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.92
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.01