2016 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

29·27

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.5est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.074
  • 48.2%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.202EPA / dropback-0.035
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.142
  • 10.6%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +4.99CPOE-1.63
  • 44.9%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 51.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.46
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:23328Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 12:18629Field goal3–7
NYGQ1 9:35875Touchdown3–14
WASQ1 6:101060Field goal6–14
NYGQ1 0:25620Punt6–14
WASQ2 12:32724Field goal9–14
NYGQ2 8:341065Touchdown9–21
WASQ2 4:12275Touchdown16–21
NYGQ2 3:40758Turnover16–21
WASQ2 1:10828End of half16–21
WASQ3 15:0035Punt16–21
NYGQ3 13:1046Punt16–21
WASQ3 11:02460Touchdown23–21
NYGQ3 9:45864Field goal23–24
WASQ3 6:291468Field goal26–24
NYGQ4 14:57555Turnover26–24
WASQ4 13:35510Punt26–24
NYGQ4 11:00858Field goal26–27
WASQ4 7:531046Field goal29–27
NYGQ4 1:51524Turnover29–27
WASQ4 1:0200End of half29–27

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3529620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Jones17653.80
Chris Thompson6233.80
Rob Kelley471.80
Kirk Cousins3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson58961
Jamison Crowder47781
Pierre Garcon57590
Jordan Reed47560
Matt Jones22140
Ryan Grant0100
Chris Thompson12-70

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning25/3835012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shane Vereen11676.11
Orleans Darkwa10535.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.7111210
Sterling Shepard57731
Victor Cruz33700
Shane Vereen25280
Bobby Rainey12240
Will Tye35140
Larry Donnell34110
Orleans Darkwa1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.53