2016 · Week 3 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.074
- 48.2%Success rate40.8%
- +0.202EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.142
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.3%
- +4.99CPOE-1.63
- 44.9%Third-down rate36.0%
- 51.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 2.32Points / drive1.46
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/35 | 296 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 8 | 96 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 7 | 78 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 4 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/38 | 350 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 7 | 11 | 121 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| Victor Cruz | 3 | 3 | 70 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.53