Closing spread
ARI -10
Total
43.5
Model margin
+7.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play-0.005
- 36.6%Success rate45.3%
- -0.222EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.093
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- -6.92CPOE-0.78
- 32.2%Third-down rate40.4%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 0.97Points / drive1.89
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 18/30 | 266 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 19 | 33 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 4 | 82 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 2 | 6 | 69 | 2 |
| Lance Kendricks | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 23/36 | 288 | 1 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 4/11 | 37 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 17 | 83 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 10 | 16 | 144 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 3 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.5%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.72
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.46