Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-2.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.089
- 45.3%Success rate39.6%
- +0.043EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.169
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.78CPOE-5.73
- 40.4%Third-down rate34.6%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.89Points / drive1.59
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 11/28 | 124 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 27 | 157 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Andre Ellington | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 8 | 81 | 2 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hakeem Valles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 18/31 | 162 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 10 | 70 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 8 | 14 | 102 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 6 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Streater | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.38