2016 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Drew Stanton

33·21

49ers

San Francisco

QB Blaine Gabbert

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

ARI -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-2.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • -0.005EPA / play-0.089
  • 45.3%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.043EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.169
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.78CPOE-5.73
  • 40.4%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.59
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
ARIQ1 15:00418Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:173-1Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:28517Punt0–0
SFQ1 10:13630Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:13735Punt0–0
SFQ1 2:5953Punt0–0
ARIQ1 0:4056Punt0–0
SFQ2 13:4147Punt0–0
ARIQ2 11:48517Punt0–0
SFQ2 8:581087Touchdown0–7
ARIQ2 4:1234Punt0–7
SFQ2 3:07513Turnover6–7
ARIQ2 1:46121Touchdown7–7
SFQ2 1:403-6Punt7–7
ARIQ2 1:0730Punt7–7
SFQ2 0:39311End of half7–7
SFQ3 15:0000Touchdown7–7
ARIQ3 14:55410Touchdown14–7
SFQ3 12:4534Punt14–7
ARIQ3 10:54671Touchdown21–7
SFQ3 7:351277Touchdown21–14
ARIQ3 1:54511Punt21–14
SFQ3 0:30311Turnover21–14
ARIQ4 14:5536Field goal24–14
SFQ4 13:3933Punt24–14
ARIQ4 11:561276Touchdown31–14
SFQ4 4:441648Touchdown31–21
ARIQ4 1:523-2Punt31–21
SFQ4 1:262-1Safety33–21
ARIQ4 1:1700End of half33–21

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton11/2812420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson271575.82
Andre Ellington6193.20
Drew Stanton2-2-1.00
Stepfan Taylor2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald68812
David Johnson36280
John Brown15110
Jermaine Gresham1140
Michael Floyd0300
Jaron Brown0200
J.J. Nelson0100
Hakeem Valles0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert18/3116212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde22783.51
Blaine Gabbert10707.01
Mike Davis242.00
Shaun Draughn2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley8141021
Carlos Hyde66360
Quinton Patton22160
Garrett Celek1540
Blake Bell1240
Torrey Smith0100
Rod Streater0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.7%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.38