Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutBrandon FlowersCBConcussion· DNP
- OutJahleel AddaeSCollarbone· DNP
- OutNick DzubnarLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GatesTEHamstring· Full
- QuestionableCraig MagerCBShoulder· Full
- QuestionableDenzel PerrymanLBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableJoe BarksdaleTFoot· Full
- QuestionableKing DunlapTIllness· Full
- DNPJason VerrettCBKnee
Raiders
- OutLatavius MurrayRBToe· DNP
- OutMenelik WatsonTCalf· DNP
- OutNate AllenSQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableAustin HowardTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableClive WalfordTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMalcolm SmithLBQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableMatt McCantsTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:32 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:01 | 16 | 97 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 4:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 3:35 | 3 | 10 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 1:27 | 8 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 13:07 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| LAC | Q2 7:13 | 4 | 62 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| LV | Q2 4:24 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LAC | Q2 2:47 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| LV | Q2 1:39 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–9 |
| LV | Q3 12:31 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–16 |
| LAC | Q3 11:25 | 3 | 75 | Touchdown | 24–16 |
| LV | Q3 10:10 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 24–19 |
| LAC | Q3 4:41 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 24–19 |
| LV | Q3 3:54 | 6 | 38 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| LAC | Q3 1:09 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 24–27 |
| LV | Q4 15:00 | 5 | 26 | Touchdown | 24–34 |
| LAC | Q4 12:51 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 31–34 |
| LV | Q4 6:21 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 31–34 |
| LAC | Q4 4:08 | 7 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 31–34 |
| LV | Q4 2:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 31–34 |
| LAC | Q4 0:11 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 31–34 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.74
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.