2014 · Week 5

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

29·28

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapTitans
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.122
  • 38.1%Success rate39.5%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.190
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -7.11CPOE-2.82
  • 29.9%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.18
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 8-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–TEN
TENQ1 15:00541Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:53512Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:37829Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 4:4639Punt0–7
TENQ1 3:00875Touchdown0–14
CLEQ2 14:411166Field goal3–14
TENQ2 10:051465Touchdown3–21
CLEQ2 3:4335Punt3–27
TENQ2 2:55175Touchdown3–28
CLEQ2 2:44990Touchdown10–28
TENQ2 0:1200End of half10–28
CLEQ3 15:00456Field goal13–28
TENQ3 12:55854Punt13–28
CLEQ3 8:211158Turnover on downs13–28
TENQ3 4:1039Punt13–28
CLEQ3 1:251155Turnover on downs13–28
TENQ4 12:4838Safety15–28
CLEQ4 11:021272Touchdown22–28
TENQ4 6:4932Punt22–28
CLEQ4 5:1430Turnover22–28
TENQ4 4:55720Turnover on downs22–28
CLEQ4 3:03537Touchdown29–28
TENQ4 1:09733End of half29–28

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer21/3729131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate221245.60
Terrance West7314.40
Isaiah Crowell6193.20
Brian Hoyer122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel46950
Miles Austin23540
Travis Benjamin44482
Jordan Cameron37330
Andrew Hawkins39260
Jim Dray34251
Ray Agnew12120
Ben Tate12-20

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Whitehurst13/2119420
Jake Locker8/117910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kendall Wright24321.50
Shonn Greene11363.30
Jake Locker4348.51
Bishop Sankey8273.40
Dexter McCluster3103.30
Charlie Whitehurst2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Hunter35991
Nate Washington47570
Delanie Walker44470
Kendall Wright68472
Chase Coffman22180
Leon Washington1170
Shonn Greene0200
Bishop Sankey0100
Dexter McCluster12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.88
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.21