Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.122
- 38.1%Success rate39.5%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.190
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- -7.11CPOE-2.82
- 29.9%Third-down rate29.7%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.44Points / drive1.18
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. TEN are 8-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 21/37 | 291 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 22 | 124 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 6 | 95 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 4 | 4 | 48 | 2 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 3 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Ray Agnew | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 13/21 | 194 | 2 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 8/11 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Bishop Sankey | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Hunter | 3 | 5 | 99 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 6 | 8 | 47 | 2 |
| Chase Coffman | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.88
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.21