Closing spread
KC -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/22 | 224 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 24 | 131 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.40
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.